The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that there could be 145 million electric vehicles on global roads by 2030 at the current rate of adoption.
Furthermore, if world governments accelerated their efforts to achieve global climate and energy goals, there could be as many as 230 million vehicles in service over the same period.
To put this into perspective, estimates of vehicles on the road across the world today are not easy to come by but figures hint that there could be as many as 1.4 billion vehicles on the road worldwide.
The IEA report Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021, also found that the automotive industry saw a downturn in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic with the automotive market retracting 16% last year. However, electric vehicles saw an increase in sales with 3 million new electric cars registered in 2020, an increase of 41% over the previous year.
The uptake in electric cars has continued into Q1 of 2021 with global sales being more than double what they were in the same period last year.
Not just Electric Cars
There are now over 10 million electric cars on the road across the globe, with an additional 1 million electric commercial vehicles including vans, trucks and buses.
It’s not just electric cars that are driving increased EV adoption. The IEA’s report notes that “the most electrified road transport mode” is the motorcycle and moped. Asia has seen the biggest uptake in two and three-wheeled EVs.
China has historically been the biggest market for EVs but Europe now dominates with 1.4 million electric cars registered in 2020 against 1.2 million in China.
Electric buses have also been the subject of rapid electrification with trucks seeing strong growth recently. Developments in battery technology have seen improved performance and range
2030 and Beyond
For the rest of the decade, growth in EV uptake is expected to grow significantly with as many as 145 million electric vehicles on world roads by 2030. However, the IEA predicts that this figure could increase to as much as 230 million if governments accelerate their efforts to achieve international targets.
Looking beyond 2030, ambitious targets of net-zero emissions by 2050 could further accelerate electric vehicle growth. Alongside the production of new electric vehicles themselves, the wider implications involve charging infrastructure, continued improvements in battery technology, boosting not just performance and range, but also the means of production and driving down costs to improve availability and uptake.
The IEA will release a further report on 16th May entitled Net Zero in 2050: A roadmap for the global energy system.
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